Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes a black swan as a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics:
- it’s unpredictable
- it carries a massive impact
- after the fact, we try to explain what makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it actually was.
Favorite quotes from the book:
“Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that’s what you are seeking.”
“When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.”